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I Don’t Let the Weather Determine When I Hike

Heavy Weather
Heavy Weather in the White Mountains

I saw someone write “I don’t let the weather determine when I hike” on a hiking message board recently, and it’s got to be one of the stupidest things I’ve ever seen. The weather in the White Mountains kills people all year round because people don’t take it seriously enough or understand the dangers it can pose.

The hikers at greatest risk are non-locals who don’t know how to find out the local weather or don’t understand the potential consequences of thunderstorms, getting struck by lightning above treeline, flash floods, high water crossings, wind chill, and hypothermia, and can’t grasp the difficulty of launching a rescue operation in the White Mountains if someone gets in trouble.

If you’re visiting the White Mountains and plan to hike, add a few extra days to your schedule in case you need to postpone your hike for bad weather to pass through. I’m a seasoned White Mountain hiker and I postpone or cancel day hikes and backpacking trips year-round when several inches of rain, ice storms, heavy snow, sub-zero temperatures, or high winds are in the forecast.

Forecast a year later...
Forecast a year later…

At the time this Darwin nominee wrote “I don’t let the weather determine when I hike”, the forecast was calling for 3 inches of overnight rainfall in a mountainous areas where the ground was already saturated by spring snowmelt. The stream-crossings were already running very high and the trails were ankle-deep with running water. I remember that day well, because I cancelled the day hike that I’d planned with two other very experienced hikers because it would have been unsafe, and also extremely unpleasant.

If you’re backpacking and get caught out in weather like this, my advice is simple. Find a lean-to or trail shelter and hang out for the day under cover. If a trail shelter is not available, pitch your tent or tarp on higher ground that won’t get flooded out by water and avoid densely packed tent sites or platforms where water is likely to pool underneath you. The best surface to camp on in this kind of weather is loose forest duff like pine needles and leaves because they absorb a lot of water and drain well.

Mt Washington Valley Forecast
Mt Washington Valley Forecast

Mt Washington Observatory Weather Forecast Links:

Avoiding bad weather is simple: just check the weather forecast before you take a hike. In the White Mountains, your best source of information are the weather forecasts published by the Mt Washington Observatory. Their Higher Summits and Mt Washington Valley forecasts always indicate extreme conditions using the red box shown above. This weather forecast is also posted in all of the Appalachian Mountain Club Huts, which is why I always stop in and check the latest weather conditions posted there.

If you don’t have access to a weather forecast, you can also become skilled at predicting the weather, particularly extreme weather conditions, by carefully observing cloud formations. 

See Also:


  1. We find the LATS method of weather forecasting to be much more reliable than those put out by professionals. Look At The Sky.

    This past Sunday we took a chance on driving 3 hours each way in order to hike a ridgetop along the PA AT, as we’re closing in on the NJ border, and finally finishing Rocksylvania. The forecast for that area (we did check it) was thunderstorms, and the sky on the way up looked threatening. However, looking North and East, the sky looked clearer. Had we seen lightning, or encountered any thunderstorm activity, we would have cancelled the hike. Our plan was to explore the small local towns if we got all the way there and then couldn’t hike.

    We do hike in the rain, sometimes even somewhat heavy rain (not continuous major downpours), but we have gear and we are prepared for it. Thunderstorms with lightning are quite a different matter. Hail would be a show-stopper, as would a heavy ice-storm that would just make the hike downright unpleasant, and dangerous — even with spikes. Nothing makes me happier than a blizzard, but white-out conditions would be just plain nuts to hike in. Less severe snow than that . . . well, it depends on the length of the hike, the gear we have with us, and the forecast.

    I have very fond memories of our first time on the AT. We just happened to be driving over Peter’s Mountain, and thought it would be a fun walk in the woods, wearing street clothes. It was a beautiful day, and we actually were on our way back to the car, a couple of miles away, when a sudden heavy rainstorm blew up out of nowhere. Winds blew so strongly that the rain fell practically horizontally. It lasted about 15 or 20 minutes, and in that short length of time several inches of rain fell, from PA to Baltimore, flooding some areas, with a lot of wind damage to others. We were soaked, needless to say! BTW, just before the rain hit, some tiny yellow wasp also appeared out of nowhere and stung me on the arm, which blew up from my elbow to my hand (that’s when I found out I’m allergic to bee stings, and I now carry an EpiPen on every hike). Believe it or not, that was the beginning of our love affair with the AT and with hiking in general (although I had been hiking and camping a few times, years before that).

  2. Here in the UK we have an expression “There’s no such thing as bad weather, only bad clothing.” This never ceases to infuriate me, as what was originally something said to encourage people to not shy away from a bit of moderate rain, gets used almost to denigrate those who make a sensible decision to stay off the hills due to the conditions. A great waterproof coat won’t protect you from hailstones the size of your fist, from a wind that is strong enough to knock you off your feet, from lightning, or from what these do to the ground under your feet. Sometimes, the weather is so bad that it is insane to be out in it, and there are no macho bonus points for pretending otherwise. Indeed whenever I hear someone put out this phrase, I know they’re either inexperienced and ignorant of the potential dangers of the mountains or just plain stupid.

  3. Great subject.

    I often hear from people who say “We’re coming up in two weeks to hike Mount Washington.” I tell them about the Higher Summits forecast and suggest that if they’re smart, they’ll wait until Mount Washington “invites” them up. I also suggest a back-up plan.

    As you well know, Philip, the weather determines everything up here.

    If you are hiking with a dog, this compounds the importance of proper choices. Some weather, some trails, are simply not good (or safe) for dogs to be out in or on. And it’s not always the weather you would think of.

    About a month ago a friend of mine took her dog up Mount Adams under a cloudless blue sky. Temperature was in the mid-eighties. The woman had a ball. She loved it. The dog ended up in the emergency room later that night after being baked by the sun above treeline. There was no sign of difficulty for the dog, other than some ordinary panting.

    I remember hiking Mount Liberty and Mount Flume the first summer we did the forty-eight. It was nine years ago. Atticus was only three and was full of bounce. We did okay, even though the temperatures reached the low nineties. I look back now with two questions:

    1.) How did we do that?

    2.) Why did we do that?

    The answer to the second question is simply “ignorance.” I didn’t know better. But the more we hike, the more sites like this one, the more information and experience we gather, the easier it is to make better decisions.

  4. I remember one weekend when I was out hiking and we had a huge thunderstorm roll in. I sat in the tent for the afternoon, and I’m really glad I did. That hail was probably a good thing to get out from. No one likes to get hailed on. I’ve seen and heard of people who just think it is a good idea to push through, and yes I’ll admit hiking in a light rain is no big deal, a little bit of water never killed anyone. But a lot of water has killed people. If it looks like rain, and sounds like thunder, it’s probably rain.

  5. Brilliant. I shall invest in one of these immediately.

  6. I was up in Franconia July 2-4 this year and hoped to at least get one day of hiking in, but brought lots of books just in case since the weather was sort of crazy. I was talking to a guy at the Inn I was staying at and he told me his plans to hike Franconia Ridge on the 3rd (with that lovely forecast you pictured.) I mentioned the forecast and he announced proudly “I haven’t looked at computers or tv in days, I just came here to hike.” Ok, buddy.

    I did manage to get a nice dry hike up Waumbek in and then all the guests sat on the porch and watched the storms roll in after dinner.

  7. Fascinating and tempting. Is your backpack and other gear inside the Faraday Cage with you, most convenient, or do you use a UL cage and hang everything on the exterior?

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      • The post was supposed to read: Perhaps 30 pounds is considered “ultralight” for a Faraday Cage?

        • A few decades ago, I visited the transmitter room at the top of One Shell Plaza in Houston, with nine 100,000 Watt transmitters. They had a Faraday cage for making measurements. There were pass-through connectors to run coax to your instruments.

          With nearly a million Watts around, I was happy that I had a mechanical watch.

          Oh, and the next room had a four megawatt UHF TV transmitter. Didn’t go in there.

  8. It was a person who posted on the 4000 footer (White Mountrains facebook group) and ignored the advice of dozens of more experienced hikers to take the day off. It was an above treeline day hike and not a backpacking trip, and I still think the person is stupid for not using common sense and postponing his hike for a day until fairer weather blew in. But that’s just my opinion.

    • And I agree with you, Philip, knowing this additional information regarding where the hike was. That is obviously poor judgement by that particular hiker. However, reading your post this morning, I didn’t find anywhere that stated this person was day hiking above treeline in the White Mountains. You just started talking about the White Mountains right after you stated that the comment was one of the stupidest things you’ve ever seen. I’m guessing that you have a readership that spans most of the globe, and although most of us know that you hike in the White Mountains a lot, we can’t necessarily assume that everything you write about takes place in those mountains. The weather in MANY parts of the world “kills people all year round because people don’t take it seriously enough or understand the dangers it can pose.” Thank you for adding the additional, and very important, information in your post above!

  9. Here in Maine, Mt Katahdin is often closed to hikers if the weather is poor. Folks have died from lightening strikes, hypothermia, falls, etc. there is a spectrum of people seeking the outdoors. Some may be worse than inexperienced, they may have big egos that put them in harms way. There is a photo posted at ranger stations in Baxter state park Of two teenage boys above tree line smiling as their hair is standing on end just minutes before being struck and killed by lightning I do appreciate the spirit of getting outside even if the weather is not calm and sunny but I have seen plenty of folks heading out into dangerous conditions unprepared or ignorant of the risks.

  10. It was written above, “I actually think that the vast majority of backpackers in the Whites know what their getting into-non-locals included”. Based on the fact that there has been over 140 fatalities on/near Mt. Washington, many due to weather combined with ignorant decision making, the above statement isn’t exactly on target.

    I believe that Philip did an effective job in conveying his point. No matter how tough or fit you think you are, the weather in the Whites can humble you in a blink of an eye. Failing to act with any sense of reason not only puts your life at risk but the lives of the SAR volunteers that will brave the weather that “won’t determine when you hike” to save your ass.

    Keep up the great work Philip, the quality of writing you produce is just fine.

  11. I’m a day hiker, and I often tell people that my I’m not proud when it comes to hiking. I keep an eye on the weather and will slide down a trail on my butt if that’s the only way I can be safe.

  12. As a private pilot, I have a personal motto: “I love to fly and I’d like to do it again, so sometimes I won’t.”

    Most of the bad situations I’ve gotten myself into in life have been when I felt pressured by a deadline and didn’t think things through or consider the bigger picture. In most cases, the urgency was in my self imposed–I could have easily changed course but I didn’t want to disappoint or inconvenience someone. The trouble caused by not wanting to be trouble was usually much greater than what I feared in the first place.

    I realize ones who are on the trail for long periods of time away from information or more established shelter don’t have as much flexibility but I strive not to allow artificial schedules to compromise the safety of those with me or myself.

  13. There’s a confusing sentence in my comment above. I started to write “the urgency was in my mind” and tried to change it to “the urgency was self imposed” but I didn’t follow my own best advice and I hit “Post Comment” before taking the time to proof read.

    Silly artificial “get back to work” deadlines!

  14. I know this is an old post but it’s still apropos. What about vacations that a group has scheduled several months in advance?

    Case in point: Western US mountain ranges. Most only have a week off, need acclimation time for high altitudes, and had a 5 day route planned? If the weather has 3 days of wet, near freezing weather move in, then what? How to make the best of it?

    1. Go, expect to be wet, cold and not see any peaks or pinned down in your tent.
    2. Stay low and day hike if at all possible (OK for National Parks, but not so much for wilderness areas)

    In 2020 a group that braved travel during peak COVID met me for a backpack in the WY Winds. The day before the backpack I saw a strong cold front was predicted that night. Said we need to delay as temps will be in the teens at 10,000′. Didn’t know that it led to a historic wind-storm destroying all major trailheads until the next day when we tried a day hike. Luckily I found a way in for their only 3 days left and it we had clear weather. But we could have easily had a full 4-5 days of nasty weather. I’ve had that happen as well. Never came up with a good solution.

  15. This article was largely referring to day hiking MT Washington, a killer in bad weather. But I think the lessons apply to longer trips as well. Make sure you have a plan B. For example, I buy plane tickets that are refundable and I only book hotel rooms I can cancel. If you can’t or won’t plan an alternate then you pretty much have to be prepared to embrace the suck and make the best of it.

    • I think that’s exactly right. On that 2020 trip I had to create Plan D as 2 planned alternates were wiped out. For those that are flying out for just a week, if the weather looks slightly unstable in town for several days, cancel. In my experience a 20% chance of rain at 7500′ means 90% chance at 10,000′. Mountain forecasts more than a few days out are pretty useless, so cancellations windows should be no more than 48 hrs.

      • Other nimble move (when flying into a trip) is to have a Plan B or C that is hundreds of miles in another direction from the airport you are flying in to. i.e. You are committed to the flight and airport but (assuming you are renting a vehicle) you can switch out the final destination and often access different weather, elevation, conditions etc. If the plan B is something that interests you so much it is actually a plan A minus you will not be caught flat footed.

        Several weather sites I find useful for trip planning. Mind the calibration parameters and there is a ton of useful information Note 1 week parameters, very good for spotting major temperature swings Note 1 week parameters. Excellent for spotting major precipitation events. Years back it spotted Flagstaff’s second largest ever winter storm 10 days out. These forecasts are kinda long range – and can flicker like a light bulb when they are 7 or 12 days out but still worth a peek, see what the forecasters perceive as worthy of mention. Fabulous precipitation site. Tenths of an inch calibration in 6 hour modules up to 3.5 days out

        Answers that vital question. How much rain? When and for how long?

        • Grandpa’s spot on pilot comment reminded me of a mantra a pilot friend passed on. He had a long career as a pilot, first in the Navy and then as a commercial pilot flying airliners.

          “It is better to be on the ground wishing you were in the air then being in the air wishing you were on the ground.”

          Wise for pilots, also wise for peak baggers or high ridge hikers.

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